2011 weather prediction

[TellurideTom]

As I do every year, here's what I predict for this year:

Windy and Warm... kinda like last year, but..

Highs during the day during pre-fest: low 60's to mid 70's.
Lows during the night during pre-fest: mid 40's to low 30's with a chance of frozen water jugs.
Highs during the day the week of festival: mid to upper 70's to low 80's.
Lows during the night the week of festival: mid 40's to low 50's (but it'll feel colder).
Windy conditions during the week, with possible gusts in the 20-40 mph range.
Chance of showers: 30% to 40% early in the week to 10% to 20% late in the week, but mostly dry.

Note: This a a "prediction" not a "forecast".

[Auntie Hope]

pre-fest meaning ABGAT Week???

Auntie Hope 

[TellurideTom]

pre-fest meaning ABGAT Week???

Auntie Hope 

Yup.

[Auntie Hope]

For the Newbies......

ABGAT = Advanced BlueGrass Assult Team
Paid Camping in Town Park for the Die-Hard Town Park Campers (separate from the cost of the Festi-Pass)
June 4th - June 10th

Pre-Fest
Town Park Only
June 11th - June 15th

FESTIVVVAAALLL!!!
June 16th - June 19th

And then Comes Monday - Post Fest...
June 20th
We have to be out of the campgrounds by Noon.
I know, it's a bummer, but there's always Next Year!!! 

[HuckinFappy]

Windy and Warm... kinda like last year, but..

Wait, what?

Heck, I don't think my kids got into shorts most of the week....Tessa recalls it being pretty darn cool (I never recall anything).  Are you sure it was warm last year?   

[Jaci]

Thanks, Tom. Your weather predictions for the FESTIVAAAAL have always been pretty dead-on correct, at least as far back as I remember them. But then, as a die-hard Festivarian from Texas, I also know exactly what you mean by the word "warm." This is my 14th year at the FESTIVAAAAL, after all.

I will say that the week or so before the FESTIVAAAAL can include what I would describe as some pretty difficult  weather though, even for those who arrive from New Mexico and other places with colder weather. 

Hope, I really appreciate your helpful definitions of the meaning of ABGAT and Pre-Fest. This is great "inside info" for newbies. Sometimes, we forget how much newbies don't know without being told explicitly.

Last year, I knew some newbies who came into Town Park from New Mexico during ABGAT for the first time. I hadn't adequately warned them in advance about the weather that was likely that week, and they were shocked and dismayed by the freezing cold and wet weather that occurred as they were setting up camp.  It is very helpful to let people know that sometimes, the weather during the week or so before the beginning of FESTIVAAAAL can indeed be snowy, icy, and rainy...but that it doesn't usually last into the FESTIVAAAAL.

Just tell them to be sure to bring extra warm blankets, a knit cap, a lightweight, rainproof jacket, and some extra socks and shoes, just in case.  I'll never forget the year of the thick mud. I was wearing loafers one night during the music and the mud was so incredbly thick, it actually pulled them off my feet on my way to the porta-potties! But that was the only time in the past 14 years we had mud like that. A bit of rain during the afternoon, on the other hand, is pretty typical. So, they need to be ready to pull on a rainsuit  or a poncho with a hood in a moment's notice if they're out on their tarp and the music is too good to miss.    

Jaci (who is usually feeling colder during FESTIVAAAAL than those from Colorado)

 Listening to: Keb Mo - The One Friend

[swander99]

  Last year was warm, very sunny, and windy.  It's always cold at night @ 8745', and I'm from MinneApple...we set up in the snow last year on Sunday Pre-Fest.  But then it was dry and fabulous the rest of the week! Nice work Mr. Mayor!
 



 Listening to: wdvx online in heart(flat)land office

[Debbiefromtucson]

Snow last year on Sunday?

How did I miss this?

I remember one really, really miserable day- but I thought it was around Friday.. But, I missed the snow......? makes me very sad...

or maybe it's just all running together

[Debbiefromtucson]

and again for the newbies- just remember... Bring clothes for weather conditions from 90 degrees to 20 degrees.. and layer,layer, layer... Expect burning sunshine ( and I'm from Tucson- I know sunshine) to Snow and everything in between- could all happen in a space of a few hours....

[ShatteredArm]

Windy and Warm... kinda like last year, but..

Wait, what?

Heck, I don't think my kids got into shorts most of the week....Tessa recalls it being pretty darn cool (I never recall anything).  Are you sure it was warm last year?   

It most definitely was warm last year.  I remember kids running around with water guns, and everybody begging them to shoot them.  I believe it was only in the mid 70s, but between the dry, stagnant air and hot sun, you warm up very quickly.

In fact, I even came from Phoenix, and I thought it was warm.

[TellurideTom]

Windy and Warm... kinda like last year, but..

Wait, what?

Heck, I don't think my kids got into shorts most of the week....Tessa recalls it being pretty darn cool (I never recall anything).  Are you sure it was warm last year?   

It most definitely was warm last year.  I remember kids running around with water guns, and everybody begging them to shoot them.  I believe it was only in the mid 70s, but between the dry, stagnant air and hot sun, you warm up very quickly.

In fact, I even came from Phoenix, and I thought it was warm.

Warmth can be a bit evasive, depending on where you're from...
But in the altitude of Telluride and lack of humidity it can feel warmer than you realize.
It can also burn your butt a lot faster too, so be sure to bring sunscreen.

[Auntie Hope]

Legend has it that if ABGAT weather sinks, Festival weather will be great! Now, if ABGAT weather is great, well.... keep your gear with you at all times.

Okay, here's my take on last year (2010)...

Adam and I arrived at noon on Friday. It was beautiful but cool in the shade and the wind was moving at a pretty good clip. As soon as the sun began to set and I started cooking it started raining... cold, soak into your bones rain, but I kept cooking in the rain. We eat, I'm talking to two ladies and suddenly I'm not exactly shivering but not getting words out properly either. I'm escorted over to Fishbone to stand under the heater. Warmed up and off to my tent for dry shoes and warm blankets. Good Night Auntie Hope.

Saturday - Land Rush....
Dustin and Company pull into Town Park and are so amazed at how much SNOW is on the peaks they start showing us pictures from their drive into town. We're hearing that there is snow at lower elevations and hail storms in Ouray and Ridgeway. First timer Sharon at Hippo Campus stays in Ouray because she's been caught in a hail storm somewhere east of Montrose. It was a rough day every where except in the canyon, i.e., Telluride.

Saturday afternoon, around 2:30 p.m. it changes in the canyon. There's wind and rain so cold that Jailhouse fired up their heaters and everyone seemed to gather either there or Fishbone, and this went on until 2 - 2:30 a.m.

Sunday.... If I remember correctly, I said thank you to Fishbone and Jailhouse about six dozen times because if they hadn't fired up those heaters, well, quite a few of us Town Park Campers would have been in some serious, serious trouble just after arrival in the canyon.

Any of this ring a bell Deb??? Anyone???

Let me just add this... Jaci is VERY RIGHT!!!!!!!! Do not expect the magic of TBF to imply automatic sunshine and perfect weather from the minute you land until the minute you leave. Take it from me, my first clue was the following quote...

"Does anyone remember the year we woke up to six inches of snow when you unzipped your tent?"

Any kind of weather can and will happen in Telluride, and it will be the weather for the gear you didn't pack if you don't bring anything and everything with you!

A - Bathing Suit
B - T-shirts
C - Shorts
D - Rain Jackets
E - Under Armor
F - Long Pants
G - Long Sleeve T's
H - Fleece Jacket
J - Ski Jacket
K - Sandals
L - Warm Shoes

A thru L... yes, you need it ALL. This is not whimpy camping and this is not stupid music. This is Telluride Bluegrass FESTIVVVAAALLL!!! and you do not want to spend ALL FOUR DAYS in your tent!

By the way, that skinny little sleeping bag you took to Wannee, or Wauka or Roo ain't gonna cut it either without, AT THE VERY LEAST, a fleece sleeping bag liner. Spend the $10 - $20. You'll be very glad you did!

Auntie Hope 




And now, back to Telluride Tom and the weather report for TBF 2011! Take it away T-Tom!

[Debbiefromtucson]

Ok- Guess that's why I don't remember the snow...I was hyperthermic....  YES, I do remember that day and a few people pulling me near a fire to warm up....

[hipchc]

My batik skirt STILL bears the hole from where I backed up a lil too close to the Jailhouse heater.. I'll never forget smelling somethin burning and thinkin "Uh-oh, someone's on fire".. Only to realize that I was the only one THAT close to a heater, lol.. D'OH!! (smacks forehead)
  

[swander99]

    Auntie always knows best. Bells are ringing up here, thanks!    Best week ever!