TBF Weather Forecast

[FtFunFan]

Weather forecasts beyond about 10 days into the future have very little skill, but I'll nonetheless begin today by posting the forecast for TBF, and update it as the time nears with any changes in the model forecasts.  Only 1 model I have access to goes out to 260+ hours, so for now, this is based solely on the GFS model.

Thursday-Sunday, 6/20-23: hot and dry

(I would personally prefer cool with occasional rain, but I expect some of you disagree...)

[Bevin]

And it's looking fairly cool with no chance of rain for ABGAT week.  I'd love to see at least a little rain at some point myself - helps keep everything from getting so dang dusty. 

[AnythingAtAll]

One model has high pressure sliding way east (centered near Dallas) and bringing up early monsoon moisture into W. New Mexico and SW Colorado for this coming weekend, this is in conflict with a shorter model thru Thursday where the high pressure doesn't go that far.

Too early to even call the weekend at this point...

[FtFunFan]

The more recent runs of the GFS now show a good chance of rain on Sat and Sun 6/22-23.  But it's still too far in the future to have much (any) confidence. 

[completejohn]

Accuweather says a "stray shower" on Friday 6/21, but besides that, Fest is mid 60's with no precip, lows in the mid 40's.

[FtFunFan]

Beware of anything Accuweather says!  They offer forecasts out to 25 days in the future, and any forecast by anyone beyond about 15 days in the future has zero skill compared to climatology (i.e., compared to forecasting the average).  They offer those crazy long-range forecasts just so people will click on their webpage, resulting in more ad revenue. 

[BillyBeru]

From Telluride Daily Planet today
http://www.telluridenews.com/articles/2013/06/13/news/doc51b8fe6ed2d75390941380.txt

[AnythingAtAll]

Yep, pack more hats, sunglasses and sunscreen than long johns...

Looks close to as warm as last year.  I'm hoping for a few more clouds...which would be any.

While not perfect, NOAA's 7 day is usually the best of the bunch... Telluride NOAA 7 Day Forecast

[FtFunFan]

The models are back to hot and dry for the entire weekend. 

[sdmjake]

Dry is good.  Solstice is good.  Full moon is good. 

 

 Listening to: Gregory Alan Isakov : John Brown's Body

[FtFunFan]

Confidence increasing in a warm and dry forecast for the entire weekend.  Highs in the 70's, lows in the 40's, lots of sun.  A very small chance, maybe 5%, of a stray storm some afternoon.

[headlight]

Should be perfect weather to go with a perfectly good time!

 Listening to: More of the same Sm VLAN Discussion

[FtFunFan]

Looks like there's a chance for a few high clouds to help cool us off this afternoon, then a good chance of clouds on Saturday morning through midday.  Otherwise continued hot and dry, with cool mornings.